By Kyle Krumlauf – Senior Director, Industry Analytics
As we end 2025, the complexity and volatility that have characterized this year show little sign of slowing down. Despite hopes for greater stability, economic conditions remain uncertain, and attention is already shifting toward 2026 and what to expect.
Before I dive into any trends for next year, I did want to look back at 2025 and take a look at several trends:
- Used Vehicle Prices: Although used vehicle prices continued to increase throughout much of the year, we didn’t see rampant used vehicle inflation, despite average transaction prices and overall increases in MSRPs for new vehicles. This is potentially tied to weak consumer demand for vehicles.
- Total Losses: Generally, when used vehicle values increase, total loss claims decrease. In 2025, we saw the opposite: total loss rates have remained up, likely due to an older vehicle fleet, along with customers more hesitant to file first party claims.
- Driving Patterns: Companies have been slower to enforce return-to-office policies, though the trends continue to suggest gradual shifts away from hybrid and remote work arrangements.
So, with those 2025 trends in mind, what does the next year hold? While my crystal ball is out of commission, there are a few data-driven insights I expect in the year ahead.
Tariffs in Transition: Negotiations, New Policies, and Lingering Impact
While the initial flurry of tariff activity is likely behind us, I expect to see continued activity around tariffs that could impact collision repair.
For example, many countries are negotiating down their tariff agreements. Examples include Switzerland negotiating their tariff rate down from 39% to 15%, and decreased tariffs on many imports from some South American countries, including bananas, beef, and coffee. Source: Reuters
With these shifting policies, the US may also decide to introduce newer, more targeted fines. And with these shifting sands in trade, there remains the possibility of legislative action in the future regarding tariffs.
- The overall effect of tariffs on part costs has been relatively muted in the grand scheme of things: total part dollars for repairable claims are only up ~2% in Q3 2025. Source: CCC Intelligent Solutions
To Repair or Not to Repair?
Claim volumes have been front and center within collision repair for almost two years. During that time, we have witnessed shop backlogs return to sub-2-week averages (Source: Crash Network) and cycle times hit levels not seen since 2020 (Source: CCC Intelligent Solutions).
Consumers are feeling cash-strapped, which makes them hesitant to make big purchases like a new car. This means the average age of vehicles on the road is creeping higher, and if someone does get in an accident, they may not have the funds to cover their deductible or new vehicle if it's a total loss.
Beyond just holding on to cars longer, we’ve also seen a trend in claim and insurance behaviors. To save where they can, consumers are dropping full coverage, especially if their car is older. Even if they have coverage for their car, customers are sensitive to rate increases due to a claim. Most concerning to me is that in 2023, an estimated 15.4% of drivers (which is almost 40M people) were uninsured. Source: Insurance Research Council, APCIA
- To combat this decline in volume, many shops have increased focus on identifying solutions for consumers with vehicles in need of repair, like customer self-pay, writing estimates on vehicles coming in for regular service, and alternative payment solutions.
When repair volumes bounce back, shop readiness and having enough well-trained technicians will again be key drivers of the industry’s performance.
Diagnostic Scans are Table Stakes
In any other year, diagnostics would be the lead story. 71% of Q3 2025 repairable claims included a scan, an increase of almost 3 percentage points year-over-year (Source: CCC Intelligent Solutions). Calibrations have catapulted from a 14.3% share of repairable claims in Q3 2023, to 19.2% in Q3 2024, to 25.7% in Q3 2025 – an 11.4 percent increase in two years. Source: CCC Intelligent Solutions
For direct repair program (DRP) claims, scans appeared on 87.7% of Q3 2025 repairable claims – a new high based on CCC’s national industry claims data. And calibrations now appear on 35.6% of repairable DRP claims – an increase of almost 16 percent over the past two years.
In 2026, diagnostics can be adopted into the “norm” for repairs. As procedures, pricing, and documentation become more standardized, the ecosystem of providers continues to evolve.
As we look ahead to 2026, the automotive industry faces a landscape shaped by economic uncertainty, evolving consumer behaviors, and ongoing shifts in technology and policy. While challenges remain—from fluctuating claim volumes to changing tariff impacts and the rise of diagnostics—the industry’s resilience and adaptability offer reasons for cautious optimism.
By Kyle Krumlauf – Senior Director, Industry Analytics
As we end 2025, the complexity and volatility that have characterized this year show little sign of slowing down. Despite hopes for greater stability, economic conditions remain uncertain, and attention is already shifting toward 2026 and what to expect.
Before I dive into any trends for next year, I did want to look back at 2025 and take a look at several trends:
- Used Vehicle Prices: Although used vehicle prices continued to increase throughout much of the year, we didn’t see rampant used vehicle inflation, despite average transaction prices and overall increases in MSRPs for new vehicles. This is potentially tied to weak consumer demand for vehicles.
- Total Losses: Generally, when used vehicle values increase, total loss claims decrease. In 2025, we saw the opposite: total loss rates have remained up, likely due to an older vehicle fleet, along with customers more hesitant to file first party claims.
- Driving Patterns: Companies have been slower to enforce return-to-office policies, though the trends continue to suggest gradual shifts away from hybrid and remote work arrangements.
So, with those 2025 trends in mind, what does the next year hold? While my crystal ball is out of commission, there are a few data-driven insights I expect in the year ahead.
Tariffs in Transition: Negotiations, New Policies, and Lingering Impact
While the initial flurry of tariff activity is likely behind us, I expect to see continued activity around tariffs that could impact collision repair.
For example, many countries are negotiating down their tariff agreements. Examples include Switzerland negotiating their tariff rate down from 39% to 15%, and decreased tariffs on many imports from some South American countries, including bananas, beef, and coffee. Source: Reuters
With these shifting policies, the US may also decide to introduce newer, more targeted fines. And with these shifting sands in trade, there remains the possibility of legislative action in the future regarding tariffs.
- The overall effect of tariffs on part costs has been relatively muted in the grand scheme of things: total part dollars for repairable claims are only up ~2% in Q3 2025. Source: CCC Intelligent Solutions
To Repair or Not to Repair?
Claim volumes have been front and center within collision repair for almost two years. During that time, we have witnessed shop backlogs return to sub-2-week averages (Source: Crash Network) and cycle times hit levels not seen since 2020 (Source: CCC Intelligent Solutions).
Consumers are feeling cash-strapped, which makes them hesitant to make big purchases like a new car. This means the average age of vehicles on the road is creeping higher, and if someone does get in an accident, they may not have the funds to cover their deductible or new vehicle if it's a total loss.
Beyond just holding on to cars longer, we’ve also seen a trend in claim and insurance behaviors. To save where they can, consumers are dropping full coverage, especially if their car is older. Even if they have coverage for their car, customers are sensitive to rate increases due to a claim. Most concerning to me is that in 2023, an estimated 15.4% of drivers (which is almost 40M people) were uninsured. Source: Insurance Research Council, APCIA
- To combat this decline in volume, many shops have increased focus on identifying solutions for consumers with vehicles in need of repair, like customer self-pay, writing estimates on vehicles coming in for regular service, and alternative payment solutions.
When repair volumes bounce back, shop readiness and having enough well-trained technicians will again be key drivers of the industry’s performance.
Diagnostic Scans are Table Stakes
In any other year, diagnostics would be the lead story. 71% of Q3 2025 repairable claims included a scan, an increase of almost 3 percentage points year-over-year (Source: CCC Intelligent Solutions). Calibrations have catapulted from a 14.3% share of repairable claims in Q3 2023, to 19.2% in Q3 2024, to 25.7% in Q3 2025 – an 11.4 percent increase in two years. Source: CCC Intelligent Solutions
For direct repair program (DRP) claims, scans appeared on 87.7% of Q3 2025 repairable claims – a new high based on CCC’s national industry claims data. And calibrations now appear on 35.6% of repairable DRP claims – an increase of almost 16 percent over the past two years.
In 2026, diagnostics can be adopted into the “norm” for repairs. As procedures, pricing, and documentation become more standardized, the ecosystem of providers continues to evolve.
As we look ahead to 2026, the automotive industry faces a landscape shaped by economic uncertainty, evolving consumer behaviors, and ongoing shifts in technology and policy. While challenges remain—from fluctuating claim volumes to changing tariff impacts and the rise of diagnostics—the industry’s resilience and adaptability offer reasons for cautious optimism.
